I notice a lot of internal confusion whenever people talk about macro-level bottlenecks in EA:
Talent constraint vs. funding constraint.
80k puts out declarations on different funding situation changes such as don’t found projects on the margins (RIP FTX).
People don’t found projects in AI Safety because of this switch up.
Over the next 2 years people up-skill and do independent research or join existing organisations.
Eventually, there are not enough new organisations to absorb funding.
[reverse the two in cycles I guess]
Mentorship in AI Safety
There’s a mentorship bottleneck so people are pushed to do more independent projects.
There’s less new organisations started because people are told it’s a mentorship and research aptitude bottleneck.
Eventually the mentorship bottleneck catches up because everyone up-skilled but there aren’t enough organisations to absorb the mentors etc. etc.
To be clear, I understand the counterarguments about marginality and these are exaggerated examples but I do fear at its core that the way EAs defer means we have the worst of both the social planner problem and none of the benefits of the theory of the firm.
I notice a lot of internal confusion whenever people talk about macro-level bottlenecks in EA:
Talent constraint vs. funding constraint.
80k puts out declarations on different funding situation changes such as don’t found projects on the margins (RIP FTX).
People don’t found projects in AI Safety because of this switch up.
Over the next 2 years people up-skill and do independent research or join existing organisations.
Eventually, there are not enough new organisations to absorb funding.
[reverse the two in cycles I guess]
Mentorship in AI Safety
There’s a mentorship bottleneck so people are pushed to do more independent projects.
There’s less new organisations started because people are told it’s a mentorship and research aptitude bottleneck.
Eventually the mentorship bottleneck catches up because everyone up-skilled but there aren’t enough organisations to absorb the mentors etc. etc.
To be clear, I understand the counterarguments about marginality and these are exaggerated examples but I do fear at its core that the way EAs defer means we have the worst of both the social planner problem and none of the benefits of the theory of the firm.