On the other hand, I’m not so sure that sadism is particularly worse for the long-term future than the dark triad traits. Yes, sadistic leaders may pose a special S-risk, but I am not sure they increase other x-risks so much – e.g., Hitler was kind of cautious concerning the risk of nuclear weapons igniting the atmosphere, and Stalin was partially useful in WW II and avoided WW III.
Contrast:
Some dark traits, such as Machiavellianism, can be beneficial under certain circumstances. It might be better if one could single out a dark trait, such as sadism, and only select against it while leaving other dark traits unchanged.
with these parts of the Appendix A:
Dark Triad traits predict increased intention to engage in political violence (Gøtzsche-Astrup, 2019)…
Historical evidence suggests that even many of their political adversaries—at least for some time—did not realize that Hitler, Mao, and Stalin were malevolent
Actually, open sadism often raises opposition; and I think the big 3 above weren’t salient because they were sadistic – would they have killed less people if they were just functional psychopaths?
It might be hard to spot dark tetrad individuals, but it’s not so hard to realize an individual is narcissistic or manipulative. I don’t think people contend that Stalin and Mao were so – they may argue that they were beneficial, or that they were excused because they were “great man”.
So why do such guys acquire power? Why do people support it? We often dislike acquaintances that exhibit one of the dark traits; then why do people tolerate it when it comes from the alpha male boss?
My point is that the problem might be precisely that we often claim things like “Some dark traits, such as Machiavellianism, can be beneficial under certain circumstances. It might be better if one could single out a dark trait, such as sadism, and only select against it while leaving other dark traits unchanged.” If we could just acknowledge that dark triad traits individuals are very dangerous, even if they’re sometimes useful (like a necessary evil), then perhaps we could avoid (or at least be particularly cautious with) malevolent leaders.
I agree that it’s not clear whether sadism is really worse than the Dark Triad traits.
e.g., Hitler was kind of cautious concerning the risk of nuclear weapons igniting the atmosphere,
I’m not sure whether Hitler and Stalin were more sadistic than they were Machiavellian or narcissistic. If I had to decide, I’d say that their Machiavellianism and narcissism were more pronounced than their sadism.
Regarding Hitler being “kind of cautious”: It seems plausible to me that Hitler was less cautious than a less malevolent counterfactual German leader.
What is more, it seems not too unlikely that Hitler would have used nuclear weapons in 1945 if he had had access to them. For instance, see this quote from Glad (2002, p. 32):
As the Allies closed in on Berlin, [Hitler] wanted churches, schools, hospitals, livestock, marriage records, and almost anything else that occurred to him to be destroyed. In April 1945 he wanted the entire leadership of the Luftwaffe to be summarily hanged. He considered bringing about the destruction of German cities by announcing the execution of all Royal Air Force war prisoners, so that there would be massive bombing in reprisal. He may also have given orders for all wounded German soldiers to be killed. His aim became the destruction of Germany in the greatest Gotterdaemmerung of history. As Albert Speer said about Hitler’s obsession with architecture: “Long before the end I knew that Hitler was not destroying to build, he was building to destroy.
You write:
and Stalin was partially useful in WW II and avoided WW III.
I’m not sure about that. Stalin was kind of Hitler’s ally until Hitler invaded Russia. In other words, if it weren’t for Hitler (and his overconfidence), Stalin might have even helped Hitler to win WW II (though Hitler might have lost WW II even with Stalin’s support, I don’t know). I’m no historian but Stalin’s response to Hitler’s invasion also seems to have been rather disastrous (see also Glad, 2002, p.8) and might have ended up in Russia losing WW II.
Resources like Khlevniuk (2015) also suggest that Stalin, if anything, was detrimental to Russia’ military success, at least for the first years of the war.
It might be hard to spot dark tetrad individuals, but it’s not so hard to realize an individual is narcissistic or manipulative.
I generally agree but there also seem to exist exceptions. The most strategic individuals know that narcissism and manipulativeness can be very off-putting so they will actively try to hide these traits. Stalin, for example, often pretended to be humble and modest, in public as well as in his private life, at least to some success. My impression from reading the various books listed in the references is that Stalin and Mao managed to rise to the top, partly because they successfully deceived others into believing that they are more modest and less capable, ruthless, and strategic than they actually are.
Also, it’s often not clear where justified confidence ends and narcissism begins—certainly not to the admirers of the leader in question. Similarly, what some would see as benign and even necessary instances of being realistic and strategic, others describe as unprincipled and malicious forms of manipulativeness. (The Sanders supporters who don’t want to vote for Biden come to mind here even though this example is only tangentially related and confounded by other factors.)
So why do such guys acquire power? Why do people support it? We often dislike acquaintances that exhibit one of the dark traits; then why do people tolerate it when it comes from the alpha male boss?
Good questions. Indeed, some people do not only seem to tolerate these traits in leaders, they seem to be actively drawn to such “strong men” who display certain Dark Tetrad characteristics. I have some theories for why this is but I don’t fully understand the phenomenon.
If we could just acknowledge that dark triad traits individuals are very dangerous, even if they’re sometimes useful (like a necessary evil), then perhaps we could avoid (or at least be particularly cautious with) malevolent leaders.
I’m definitely sympathetic to this perspective.
One important worry here is that different movements/political parties seem to be in a social dilemma. Let’s assume—which seems relatively plausible—that leaders with a healthy dose of narcissism and Machiavellianism are, on average, really better at things like motivating members of their movement to work harder, inspiring onlookers to join their movement, creating and taking advantage of high-value opportunities, and so on. If one movement decides to exclude members who show even small signs of Dark Triad traits, it seems plausible that this movement will be at a disadvantage compared to other movements that are more tolerant regarding such traits. Conversely, movements that tolerate (or even value) Dark Triad traits might be even more likely to rise to power. It seems very important to avoid such outcomes.
I’m also somewhat worried about “witch hunts” fueled by simplistic conceptions of malevolence. I know of several individuals who exhibit at least some level of Machiavellian and narcissistic traits—many even say so themselves—but whom I’d still love to give more influence because I believe that they are “good people” who are aware of these traits and who channel these traits towards the greater good. (Admittedly, a supporter of, say, Mao might have said the same thing back in the days.)
Thanks for the remarks concerning Hitler and Stalin.
I think it might be quite valuable, for the project as a whole, to better understand why people are drawn to leaders with features they would not tolerate in peers, such as dark traits.
For one, it’s very plausible that, as you mentioned, the explanation is (a) dark traits are very useful – these individuals are (almost) the only ones with incentives enough to take risks, get things done, innovate, etc. Particularly, if we do need things like strategies of mutually assured destruction, then we need someone credibly capable of “playing hawk”, and it’s arguably hard to believe nice people would do that. This hypothesis really lowers my credence in us decreasing x-risks by screening for dark traits; malevolent people would be analogous to nukes, and it’s hard to unilaterally get rid of them.
A competing explanation is that (b) they’re not that useful, they’re parasitical. Dark traits are uncorrelated with achievement, they just make someone better at outcompeting useful pro-social people, by, e.g., occupying their corresponding niches, or getting more publicity—and so making people think (due to representative bias) that bad guys are more useful than they are. That’s plausible, too; for instance, almost no one outside EA and LW communities knows about Arkhipov and Petrov. If that’s the case, then a group could indeed unilaterally benefit from getting rid of malevolent / dark trait leaders.
(Maybe I should make clear that I don’t have anything against dark triad traits individuals per se, and I’m as afraid of the possibility of witch hunts and other abuses as everyone else. And even if dark traits were uncorrelated with capacity for achievement, a group might deprise itself from a scarce resource by selecting against very useful dark trait individuals, like scientists and entrepreneurs)
Personally, I think this is gold.
On the other hand, I’m not so sure that sadism is particularly worse for the long-term future than the dark triad traits. Yes, sadistic leaders may pose a special S-risk, but I am not sure they increase other x-risks so much – e.g., Hitler was kind of cautious concerning the risk of nuclear weapons igniting the atmosphere, and Stalin was partially useful in WW II and avoided WW III.
Contrast:
with these parts of the Appendix A:
Actually, open sadism often raises opposition; and I think the big 3 above weren’t salient because they were sadistic – would they have killed less people if they were just functional psychopaths?
It might be hard to spot dark tetrad individuals, but it’s not so hard to realize an individual is narcissistic or manipulative. I don’t think people contend that Stalin and Mao were so – they may argue that they were beneficial, or that they were excused because they were “great man”.
So why do such guys acquire power? Why do people support it? We often dislike acquaintances that exhibit one of the dark traits; then why do people tolerate it when it comes from the alpha male boss?
My point is that the problem might be precisely that we often claim things like “Some dark traits, such as Machiavellianism, can be beneficial under certain circumstances. It might be better if one could single out a dark trait, such as sadism, and only select against it while leaving other dark traits unchanged.” If we could just acknowledge that dark triad traits individuals are very dangerous, even if they’re sometimes useful (like a necessary evil), then perhaps we could avoid (or at least be particularly cautious with) malevolent leaders.
Thank you, good points.
I agree that it’s not clear whether sadism is really worse than the Dark Triad traits.
I’m not sure whether Hitler and Stalin were more sadistic than they were Machiavellian or narcissistic. If I had to decide, I’d say that their Machiavellianism and narcissism were more pronounced than their sadism.
Regarding Hitler being “kind of cautious”: It seems plausible to me that Hitler was less cautious than a less malevolent counterfactual German leader.
What is more, it seems not too unlikely that Hitler would have used nuclear weapons in 1945 if he had had access to them. For instance, see this quote from Glad (2002, p. 32):
You write:
I’m not sure about that. Stalin was kind of Hitler’s ally until Hitler invaded Russia. In other words, if it weren’t for Hitler (and his overconfidence), Stalin might have even helped Hitler to win WW II (though Hitler might have lost WW II even with Stalin’s support, I don’t know). I’m no historian but Stalin’s response to Hitler’s invasion also seems to have been rather disastrous (see also Glad, 2002, p.8) and might have ended up in Russia losing WW II.
Resources like Khlevniuk (2015) also suggest that Stalin, if anything, was detrimental to Russia’ military success, at least for the first years of the war.
I generally agree but there also seem to exist exceptions. The most strategic individuals know that narcissism and manipulativeness can be very off-putting so they will actively try to hide these traits. Stalin, for example, often pretended to be humble and modest, in public as well as in his private life, at least to some success. My impression from reading the various books listed in the references is that Stalin and Mao managed to rise to the top, partly because they successfully deceived others into believing that they are more modest and less capable, ruthless, and strategic than they actually are.
Also, it’s often not clear where justified confidence ends and narcissism begins—certainly not to the admirers of the leader in question. Similarly, what some would see as benign and even necessary instances of being realistic and strategic, others describe as unprincipled and malicious forms of manipulativeness. (The Sanders supporters who don’t want to vote for Biden come to mind here even though this example is only tangentially related and confounded by other factors.)
Good questions. Indeed, some people do not only seem to tolerate these traits in leaders, they seem to be actively drawn to such “strong men” who display certain Dark Tetrad characteristics. I have some theories for why this is but I don’t fully understand the phenomenon.
I’m definitely sympathetic to this perspective.
One important worry here is that different movements/political parties seem to be in a social dilemma. Let’s assume—which seems relatively plausible—that leaders with a healthy dose of narcissism and Machiavellianism are, on average, really better at things like motivating members of their movement to work harder, inspiring onlookers to join their movement, creating and taking advantage of high-value opportunities, and so on. If one movement decides to exclude members who show even small signs of Dark Triad traits, it seems plausible that this movement will be at a disadvantage compared to other movements that are more tolerant regarding such traits. Conversely, movements that tolerate (or even value) Dark Triad traits might be even more likely to rise to power. It seems very important to avoid such outcomes.
I’m also somewhat worried about “witch hunts” fueled by simplistic conceptions of malevolence. I know of several individuals who exhibit at least some level of Machiavellian and narcissistic traits—many even say so themselves—but whom I’d still love to give more influence because I believe that they are “good people” who are aware of these traits and who channel these traits towards the greater good. (Admittedly, a supporter of, say, Mao might have said the same thing back in the days.)
Thanks for the remarks concerning Hitler and Stalin.
I think it might be quite valuable, for the project as a whole, to better understand why people are drawn to leaders with features they would not tolerate in peers, such as dark traits.
For one, it’s very plausible that, as you mentioned, the explanation is (a) dark traits are very useful – these individuals are (almost) the only ones with incentives enough to take risks, get things done, innovate, etc. Particularly, if we do need things like strategies of mutually assured destruction, then we need someone credibly capable of “playing hawk”, and it’s arguably hard to believe nice people would do that. This hypothesis really lowers my credence in us decreasing x-risks by screening for dark traits; malevolent people would be analogous to nukes, and it’s hard to unilaterally get rid of them.
A competing explanation is that (b) they’re not that useful, they’re parasitical. Dark traits are uncorrelated with achievement, they just make someone better at outcompeting useful pro-social people, by, e.g., occupying their corresponding niches, or getting more publicity—and so making people think (due to representative bias) that bad guys are more useful than they are. That’s plausible, too; for instance, almost no one outside EA and LW communities knows about Arkhipov and Petrov. If that’s the case, then a group could indeed unilaterally benefit from getting rid of malevolent / dark trait leaders.
(Maybe I should make clear that I don’t have anything against dark triad traits individuals per se, and I’m as afraid of the possibility of witch hunts and other abuses as everyone else. And even if dark traits were uncorrelated with capacity for achievement, a group might deprise itself from a scarce resource by selecting against very useful dark trait individuals, like scientists and entrepreneurs)