It increasingly sounds like you are coming from a starting point of “there is no scheming” and looking for evidence to update.
But to be more explicit, you shouldn’t start from “there is no scheming”, because base rates would suggest that there is scheming that goes on ahead of time.
This conversation doesn’t seem to be achieving anything so I’m going to stop replying now. You seem to have a very high credence that you can read people’s intentions from scant evidence; I’m both dubious of this, and that I’d be able to change your mind in a timely fashion.
It increasingly sounds like you are coming from a starting point of “there is no scheming” and looking for evidence to update.
But to be more explicit, you shouldn’t start from “there is no scheming”, because base rates would suggest that there is scheming that goes on ahead of time.
This conversation doesn’t seem to be achieving anything so I’m going to stop replying now. You seem to have a very high credence that you can read people’s intentions from scant evidence; I’m both dubious of this, and that I’d be able to change your mind in a timely fashion.