We face a lot of uncertainty about the sign of our impact.
Therefore, we should be very vigilant about our epistemics to make sure that we are not having a negative impact in expectation.
But trying hard deeply distorts our epistemicsâit makes us more prone to motivated reasoning about what weâre doing, and leaves us with less slack to reflect on it.
Great point.
Crucially, this argument applies much more strongly to people working in âlongtermist areasââwhich other critiques of trying hard generally donât do. For example, global health EAs whose terminal value is short-term welfare also face uncertainty about the impact of their actionsâbut much less (especially about the sign) than people trying to improve the long-term future.
If interventions decreasing the risk of large catastrophes mostly affected the longterm future, why would the same not apply to global health interventions?
Interventions with negligible longterm effects could still decrease welfare due to effects on soil invertebrates?
Not sure what youâre asking exactlyâIâm just saying that if youâre not a longtermist, you donât face as much uncertainty about how to achieve good outcomes, so the argument doesnât apply as much to you.
Iâm just saying that if youâre not a longtermist, you donât face as much uncertainty about how to achieve good outcomes
Makes sense.
Not sure what youâre asking exactly
You seem to suggest that longterm effects may not be relevant for global health interventions while being relevant for AI safety interventions (or others which are typically referred to as longtermist interventions). I meant to question this. If I thought longterm effects were relevant for AI safety interventions (I donot), I would think they would be relevant for global health interventions too.
Hi Elias.
Great point.
If interventions decreasing the risk of large catastrophes mostly affected the longterm future, why would the same not apply to global health interventions?
Interventions with negligible longterm effects could still decrease welfare due to effects on soil invertebrates?
Thanks Vasco!
Not sure what youâre asking exactlyâIâm just saying that if youâre not a longtermist, you donât face as much uncertainty about how to achieve good outcomes, so the argument doesnât apply as much to you.
Makes sense.
You seem to suggest that longterm effects may not be relevant for global health interventions while being relevant for AI safety interventions (or others which are typically referred to as longtermist interventions). I meant to question this. If I thought longterm effects were relevant for AI safety interventions (I do not), I would think they would be relevant for global health interventions too.