Where will Sub-Saharan Africa stand in terms of meat consumption and especially chicken consumption as the standard of living increases? When/âif Nigeria hits Chinaâs current GDP per capita of $12.5k do we expect more or less meat consumption than China has?
Then thereâs the welfare side. As countries get richer we have seen animal welfare get worse due to factory farming, then perhaps slightly better due to ability to afford animal welfare measures. Will we see the same trajectory in Africa, or should we expect something different like the ability to âleapfrogâ to some of the worst animal agriculture practices, or even past them?
Thank you for your comment. Those are very relevant questions! They are also quite complex and hard to give a clear answer to. Some thoughts below.
We have not conducted a detailed analysis on the trajectory of Nigeria vs. China. This seems like an interesting avenue for further research though, as Nigeria is one of the countries to watch out for. Quickly comparing meat consumption vs. GDP per capita over time via Our World in Data suggests that meat consumption per capita in Nigeria will be significantly lower than for China at comparable income levels. The two graphs below illustrate this. The first one shows the latest data (2020) for current meat consumption and GDP per capita. The second one shows data for 2004, when China had similar GDP/âcapita levels as Nigeria had in 2020. We can see that Chinaâs meat consumption levels were much higher than those of Nigeria at comparable income levels (40-50 kg vs. 5-10 kg per person). It thus seems unlikely that Nigeria will match Chinaâs meat consumption patterns. Of course, this is only a shallow analysis and should not be taken with much confidence. In any case, Nigeria is expected to see rapid increases in meat consumption over the next years and decades and should probably receive more attention from the animal advocacy community.
Various scenarios are plausible and we are highly uncertain about how this will play out. Without any intervention, the most likely scenario seems that African countries would follow the same trajectories that other countries have followed as they developed economically. Our aim is to avoid this from happening or at least to mitigate the worst aspects of such developments. We are currently conducting a research project on which strategies and interventions seem most promising in this regard. In parallel, we will be running a training programme for advocates, some of which will hopefully go on to start new projects and initiatives aimed at slowing or halting the rise of factory farming in Africa.
Some questions I would be interested in:
Where will Sub-Saharan Africa stand in terms of meat consumption and especially chicken consumption as the standard of living increases? When/âif Nigeria hits Chinaâs current GDP per capita of $12.5k do we expect more or less meat consumption than China has?
Then thereâs the welfare side. As countries get richer we have seen animal welfare get worse due to factory farming, then perhaps slightly better due to ability to afford animal welfare measures. Will we see the same trajectory in Africa, or should we expect something different like the ability to âleapfrogâ to some of the worst animal agriculture practices, or even past them?
Thank you for your comment. Those are very relevant questions! They are also quite complex and hard to give a clear answer to. Some thoughts below.
We have not conducted a detailed analysis on the trajectory of Nigeria vs. China. This seems like an interesting avenue for further research though, as Nigeria is one of the countries to watch out for. Quickly comparing meat consumption vs. GDP per capita over time via Our World in Data suggests that meat consumption per capita in Nigeria will be significantly lower than for China at comparable income levels. The two graphs below illustrate this. The first one shows the latest data (2020) for current meat consumption and GDP per capita. The second one shows data for 2004, when China had similar GDP/âcapita levels as Nigeria had in 2020. We can see that Chinaâs meat consumption levels were much higher than those of Nigeria at comparable income levels (40-50 kg vs. 5-10 kg per person). It thus seems unlikely that Nigeria will match Chinaâs meat consumption patterns. Of course, this is only a shallow analysis and should not be taken with much confidence. In any case, Nigeria is expected to see rapid increases in meat consumption over the next years and decades and should probably receive more attention from the animal advocacy community.
Various scenarios are plausible and we are highly uncertain about how this will play out. Without any intervention, the most likely scenario seems that African countries would follow the same trajectories that other countries have followed as they developed economically. Our aim is to avoid this from happening or at least to mitigate the worst aspects of such developments. We are currently conducting a research project on which strategies and interventions seem most promising in this regard. In parallel, we will be running a training programme for advocates, some of which will hopefully go on to start new projects and initiatives aimed at slowing or halting the rise of factory farming in Africa.