This seems a little naive. “We were all getting millions of dollars from this guy with billions to come, he’s personal friends with all the movement leaders, but if we had had more open discussions we would not have taken the millions...really??”
I didn’t say a specific prediction about what would have happened differently if EAs had discussed their misgivings about SBF more openly. What I’d say is that if you took a hundred SBF-like cases with lots of the variables randomized, outcomes will be a lot better if people discuss early serious warning signs and serious misgivings in public.
That will sometimes look like “turning down money”, sometimes like “more people poke around to learn more”, sometimes like “this person is less able to win others’ trust via their EA associations”, sometimes like “fewer EAs go work for this guy”.
Sometimes it won’t do anything at all, or will be actively counterproductive, because the world is complicated and messy. But I think talking about this stuff and voicing criticisms is the best general policy, if we’re picking a policy to apply across many different cases and not just using hindsight to ask what an omniscient person would do differently in the specific case of FTX.
also if you’re in line to get millions of $$$ from someone of course you are never going to share your candid thoughts about them publicly under your real name!
I mean, Open Philanthropy is MIRI’s largest financial supporter, and
I didn’t say a specific prediction about what would have happened differently if EAs had discussed their misgivings about SBF more openly. What I’d say is that if you took a hundred SBF-like cases with lots of the variables randomized, outcomes will be a lot better if people discuss early serious warning signs and serious misgivings in public.
That will sometimes look like “turning down money”, sometimes like “more people poke around to learn more”, sometimes like “this person is less able to win others’ trust via their EA associations”, sometimes like “fewer EAs go work for this guy”.
Sometimes it won’t do anything at all, or will be actively counterproductive, because the world is complicated and messy. But I think talking about this stuff and voicing criticisms is the best general policy, if we’re picking a policy to apply across many different cases and not just using hindsight to ask what an omniscient person would do differently in the specific case of FTX.
I mean, Open Philanthropy is MIRI’s largest financial supporter, and