Sorry, I think you could arrive at 2x for bayesian reasons (like weighing multiple models), but I just wanted to push back on the model that an event with twice as many attendees should be straightforwardly modeled as twice as valuable.
I agree that it’s not straightforward that a linear model is approximately correct. I do think a linear model could still be approximately correct for straightforward linear reasons, like the value being roughly proportional to the number of one-on-ones, though, and not just because you weighed multiple models together and it happened to come out to about 2x.
Sorry, I think you could arrive at 2x for bayesian reasons (like weighing multiple models), but I just wanted to push back on the model that an event with twice as many attendees should be straightforwardly modeled as twice as valuable.
I agree that it’s not straightforward that a linear model is approximately correct. I do think a linear model could still be approximately correct for straightforward linear reasons, like the value being roughly proportional to the number of one-on-ones, though, and not just because you weighed multiple models together and it happened to come out to about 2x.