For the average EA, I’d guess having children yourself is far less cost-effective than doing EA outreach. Maybe if you see yourself as having highly valuable abilities far beyond the average EA or otherwise very neglected within EA, then having children might look closer to competitive?
This is what Will says in the book: “I think the risk of technological stagnation alone suffices to make the net longterm effect of having more children positive. On top of that, if you bring them up well, then they can be change makers who help create a better future. Ultimately, having children is a deeply personal decision that I won’t be able to do full justice to here—but among the many considerations that may play a role, I think that an impartial concern for our future counts in favour, not against.”
Still, this doesn’t make the case for it being competitive with alternatives. EA outreach probably brings in far more people for the same time and resources. Children are a huge investment.
If you’re specifically targeting technological stagnation, then outreach and policy work are probably far more cost-effective than having children, because they’re much higher leverage. That being said, temporary technological stagnation might buy us more time to prepare for x-risks like AGI.
Of course, Will is doing outreach with this book, and maybe it makes sense to promote people having children, since it’s an easier sell than career change into outreach or policy, because people already want to have kids. It’s like only asking people to donate 10% of their income in the GWWC pledge, although the GWWC pledge probably serves as a better hook into further EA involvement, and having children could instead be a barrier.
Maybe at some point the marginal returns to further EA outreach will be low enough for having children to look cost-effective, but I don’t think we’re there yet.
For the average EA, I’d guess having children yourself is far less cost-effective than doing EA outreach. Maybe if you see yourself as having highly valuable abilities far beyond the average EA or otherwise very neglected within EA, then having children might look closer to competitive?
This is what Will says in the book: “I think the risk of technological stagnation alone suffices to make the net longterm effect of having more children positive. On top of that, if you bring them up well, then they can be change makers who help create a better future. Ultimately, having children is a deeply personal decision that I won’t be able to do full justice to here—but among the many considerations that may play a role, I think that an impartial concern for our future counts in favour, not against.”
Still, this doesn’t make the case for it being competitive with alternatives. EA outreach probably brings in far more people for the same time and resources. Children are a huge investment.
If you’re specifically targeting technological stagnation, then outreach and policy work are probably far more cost-effective than having children, because they’re much higher leverage. That being said, temporary technological stagnation might buy us more time to prepare for x-risks like AGI.
Of course, Will is doing outreach with this book, and maybe it makes sense to promote people having children, since it’s an easier sell than career change into outreach or policy, because people already want to have kids. It’s like only asking people to donate 10% of their income in the GWWC pledge, although the GWWC pledge probably serves as a better hook into further EA involvement, and having children could instead be a barrier.
Maybe at some point the marginal returns to further EA outreach will be low enough for having children to look cost-effective, but I don’t think we’re there yet.