Thanks for citing the survey here, and thank you Joshua for your analysis.
Your post doesn´t seem strange to me at this place; at the very least I can´t find any harm in posting it here. (If someone is more interested in other discussions, they may read the first two lines and then skip it.) The only question would be if this is worth YOUR time, and I am confident you are able to judge this (and you apparently did and found it worth your time).
Since you already delved that deep into the material and since I don´t see myself doing the same, here a question to you (or whoever else feeling inclined to answer):
Were there a significant part of experts who thought that HLMI and/or FAOL are downright impossible (at least with anything resembling our current approaches)? I do hear/read doubts like these sometimes. If so, how were these experts included in the mean, since you can´t just include infinity with non-zero probability without the whole number going up to infinity? (If they even used a mean. “Aggregate Forecast” is not very clear; if they used the median ore something similar the second question can be ignored.)
Thanks for citing the survey here, and thank you Joshua for your analysis.
Your post doesn´t seem strange to me at this place; at the very least I can´t find any harm in posting it here. (If someone is more interested in other discussions, they may read the first two lines and then skip it.) The only question would be if this is worth YOUR time, and I am confident you are able to judge this (and you apparently did and found it worth your time).
Since you already delved that deep into the material and since I don´t see myself doing the same, here a question to you (or whoever else feeling inclined to answer):
Were there a significant part of experts who thought that HLMI and/or FAOL are downright impossible (at least with anything resembling our current approaches)? I do hear/read doubts like these sometimes. If so, how were these experts included in the mean, since you can´t just include infinity with non-zero probability without the whole number going up to infinity? (If they even used a mean. “Aggregate Forecast” is not very clear; if they used the median ore something similar the second question can be ignored.)