“What probability do you put on future AI advances causing human extinction or similarly permanent and severe disempowerment of the human species?” – median: 5% – mean: 16.2%
“What probability do you put on human inability to control future advanced AI systems causing human extinction or similarly permanent and severe disempowerment of the human species?” – median: 10% – mean: 19.4%
Am I missing something, or are these answers nonsensical? On my reading, the 2nd outcome is a strict subset of the 1st outcome, so the probability can’t be higher. But the median given probability is twice as high.
Am I missing something, or are these answers nonsensical? On my reading, the 2nd outcome is a strict subset of the 1st outcome, so the probability can’t be higher. But the median given probability is twice as high.