I’m not aware of careful analysis having been done on the topic.
One thing speaking in favour of it increasing existential risk is if it leads to faster technological progress, which in turn could give less time to research on things that specifically benefit safety, of the kind that MIRI and FHI are doing. I’m thinking that more rich people in previously poor countries would make it more profitable for western countries to invest in R&D and that these previously would fund proportionally less x-risk-research than what takes place in the west (this is not an obvious assumption, but it is my suspicion).
But as mentioned by others here there are risks pointing in the other direction also.
I don’t have an opinion myself as to which direction the effect on x-risk is, but I suspect the effect on x-risk from donating to GiveWell is of neglectable importance compared to effect of whether or not you donate to x-risk-related work (assuming, as I do, that x-risk research and work directed specifically at x-risk can have a significant impact on x-risk). Your donation to aid projects seems unlikely to have a significant effect on the speed of global development as seen as a fraction of the current speed, but the number of people working on x-risk is small and thus it’s easier to affect the size of it by a significant fraction.
I’m not aware of careful analysis having been done on the topic.
One thing speaking in favour of it increasing existential risk is if it leads to faster technological progress, which in turn could give less time to research on things that specifically benefit safety, of the kind that MIRI and FHI are doing. I’m thinking that more rich people in previously poor countries would make it more profitable for western countries to invest in R&D and that these previously would fund proportionally less x-risk-research than what takes place in the west (this is not an obvious assumption, but it is my suspicion).
But as mentioned by others here there are risks pointing in the other direction also.
I don’t have an opinion myself as to which direction the effect on x-risk is, but I suspect the effect on x-risk from donating to GiveWell is of neglectable importance compared to effect of whether or not you donate to x-risk-related work (assuming, as I do, that x-risk research and work directed specifically at x-risk can have a significant impact on x-risk). Your donation to aid projects seems unlikely to have a significant effect on the speed of global development as seen as a fraction of the current speed, but the number of people working on x-risk is small and thus it’s easier to affect the size of it by a significant fraction.