If ~50% of people drift away over five years it’s hard to say how many do over 2-3, but it should be at least 25%-35% [1]. You need pretty large tax savings to risk a chance that large of actually donating nothing.
[1] 13%/year for five years gives you 50%, and I think I’d expect the rate of attrition to slowly decrease over time? 25% for two years and 35% for three is assuming it’s linear.
It seems to depend a lot on what it means for someone to no longer be involved in the EA movement. The relevant alternative in my mind isn’t donating nothing.
Speaking for myself I can certainly imagine not being involved in the EA movement in 2-3 years. It’s a lot harder to imagine myself raiding a dedicated bank account I had set aside for donations. That doesn’t mean it’s not possible, but if use the population estimates of not being in the EA movement in 2-3 years of 25-30% (which seems reasonable) as my own risk, I’d estimate the risk of raiding a dedicated bank account for charitable donations as a fraction of that—maybe 5%. In that case it could be worth it. Maybe I’ll think a little harder about that point if I decide to do it.
I 100% agree with the principal behind your post. The future, including your future identity, is so uncertain that for almost everyone the best time to donate and form altruistic habits is right now. I would only “bunch” if I could do so in a way that allows keeping those good habits.
If ~50% of people drift away over five years it’s hard to say how many do over 2-3, but it should be at least 25%-35% [1]. You need pretty large tax savings to risk a chance that large of actually donating nothing.
[1] 13%/year for five years gives you 50%, and I think I’d expect the rate of attrition to slowly decrease over time? 25% for two years and 35% for three is assuming it’s linear.
It seems to depend a lot on what it means for someone to no longer be involved in the EA movement. The relevant alternative in my mind isn’t donating nothing.
Speaking for myself I can certainly imagine not being involved in the EA movement in 2-3 years. It’s a lot harder to imagine myself raiding a dedicated bank account I had set aside for donations. That doesn’t mean it’s not possible, but if use the population estimates of not being in the EA movement in 2-3 years of 25-30% (which seems reasonable) as my own risk, I’d estimate the risk of raiding a dedicated bank account for charitable donations as a fraction of that—maybe 5%. In that case it could be worth it. Maybe I’ll think a little harder about that point if I decide to do it.
I 100% agree with the principal behind your post. The future, including your future identity, is so uncertain that for almost everyone the best time to donate and form altruistic habits is right now. I would only “bunch” if I could do so in a way that allows keeping those good habits.