Really enjoyed the way forecasts were integrated into the essay. Seems like a really useful approach!
I broadly agree that ending the trade war would be good. I’m not sure it’s as easy to mitigate the political downsides as you suggest, though. I think it’s quite unlikely that “these political costs could be reduced by communicating to the public the evidence showing tariffs are ineffective”. Mostly because it’s difficult to explain such a complicated issue on which people’s intuitions point the other way. But also because it would be a political act and you’d have half the politicians in the country spreading the opposite message.
One longer-term scenario I’d have some credence in is: if Biden were to follow through on this action, I’d expect it to have a negative effect on his chances for re-election (maybe make it 1-5% less likely?), and any increase in the chance of Biden losing the next election could be worse for US-China relations than the gain from ending the trade war (something like 50% confidence).
I’m also not sure it’s true that “other US-China issues are more complex and have less room for meaningful shifts”. This seems to neglect the fact that the US and China have mostly managed to continue cooperating on climate change negotiations even though relations on the whole have remained frosty. I’d be a fan of trying to find other issues of common ground, even if they’re less important than bilateral trade or territorial issues. For example, perhaps they could coordinate on space governance, clean tech investment, arms control, and maybe foreign aid?
I think cooperation on issues of lesser importance can be helpful as they allow countries the chance to show they can agree and uphold agreements, build trust, build personal ties between elites and diplomats, and reduce misunderstandings and misconceptions of the other side’s intentions.
Your comment is 3 months old, but somehow I missed it back when I was posted and am just now seeing it, so I just wanted to say these are all good points, particularly about cooperation on other issues like your climate example!
Really enjoyed the way forecasts were integrated into the essay. Seems like a really useful approach!
I broadly agree that ending the trade war would be good. I’m not sure it’s as easy to mitigate the political downsides as you suggest, though. I think it’s quite unlikely that “these political costs could be reduced by communicating to the public the evidence showing tariffs are ineffective”. Mostly because it’s difficult to explain such a complicated issue on which people’s intuitions point the other way. But also because it would be a political act and you’d have half the politicians in the country spreading the opposite message.
One longer-term scenario I’d have some credence in is: if Biden were to follow through on this action, I’d expect it to have a negative effect on his chances for re-election (maybe make it 1-5% less likely?), and any increase in the chance of Biden losing the next election could be worse for US-China relations than the gain from ending the trade war (something like 50% confidence).
I’m also not sure it’s true that “other US-China issues are more complex and have less room for meaningful shifts”. This seems to neglect the fact that the US and China have mostly managed to continue cooperating on climate change negotiations even though relations on the whole have remained frosty. I’d be a fan of trying to find other issues of common ground, even if they’re less important than bilateral trade or territorial issues. For example, perhaps they could coordinate on space governance, clean tech investment, arms control, and maybe foreign aid?
I think cooperation on issues of lesser importance can be helpful as they allow countries the chance to show they can agree and uphold agreements, build trust, build personal ties between elites and diplomats, and reduce misunderstandings and misconceptions of the other side’s intentions.
Your comment is 3 months old, but somehow I missed it back when I was posted and am just now seeing it, so I just wanted to say these are all good points, particularly about cooperation on other issues like your climate example!