I think my concern is that we can only “illustrate what would happen if GiveWell added decay to their model” if we have the right starting value. In the decay model’s current form, I believe the model is not only adding decay, but also inadvertently changes the total earnings effect over the first 11 years of adulthood (yet we already have evidence on the total earnings effect for these years).
However, as you noted, the main point certainly still holds either way.
Hi Joel, thanks for your response on this!
I think my concern is that we can only “illustrate what would happen if GiveWell added decay to their model” if we have the right starting value. In the decay model’s current form, I believe the model is not only adding decay, but also inadvertently changes the total earnings effect over the first 11 years of adulthood (yet we already have evidence on the total earnings effect for these years).
However, as you noted, the main point certainly still holds either way.