I think trying to figure out the common thread “explaining datapoints like FTX, Leverage Research, [and] the LaSota crew” won’t yield much of worth because those three things aren’t especially similar to each other, either in their internal workings or in their external effects.
There are many disparate factors between different cases. The particulars of each incident really matter lest people draw the wrong conclusions. However I think figuring out the common threads insofar as there are any is what we need, as otherwise we will overindex on particular cases and learn things that don’t generalize. I have meditated on what the commonalities could be and think they at least share what one may call “Perverse Maximization”, which I intend to apply to deontology (i.e. the sword stabbing) as well as utilitarianism. Maybe there’s a better word than “maximize”.
I think I discovered a shared commonality between the sort of overconfidence these extremist positions hold and the underconfidence that EAs who are overwhelmed by analysis paralysis hold: a sort of ‘inability to terminate closure-seeking process’. In the case of overconfidents, it’s “I have found the right thing and I just need to zealously keep applying it over and over”. In the case of underconfidents, it’s “this choice isn’t right or perfect, I need to find something better, no I need something better,I must find the right thing”. Both share an intolerance of ambiguity, uncertainty, and shades of gray. The latter is just more people suffering quiet misery of their perfectionism or being the ones manipulated than it ending up in any kind of outward explosion.
There are many disparate factors between different cases. The particulars of each incident really matter lest people draw the wrong conclusions. However I think figuring out the common threads insofar as there are any is what we need, as otherwise we will overindex on particular cases and learn things that don’t generalize. I have meditated on what the commonalities could be and think they at least share what one may call “Perverse Maximization”, which I intend to apply to deontology (i.e. the sword stabbing) as well as utilitarianism. Maybe there’s a better word than “maximize”.
I think I discovered a shared commonality between the sort of overconfidence these extremist positions hold and the underconfidence that EAs who are overwhelmed by analysis paralysis hold: a sort of ‘inability to terminate closure-seeking process’. In the case of overconfidents, it’s “I have found the right thing and I just need to zealously keep applying it over and over”. In the case of underconfidents, it’s “this choice isn’t right or perfect, I need to find something better, no I need something better, I must find the right thing”. Both share an intolerance of ambiguity, uncertainty, and shades of gray. The latter is just more people suffering quiet misery of their perfectionism or being the ones manipulated than it ending up in any kind of outward explosion.