I think there needs to be much better research into how to make complex decisions despite high uncertainty. There is a whole field of decision making under deep uncertainty (or knightian uncertainty) used in policy design, military decision making and climate science but rarely discussed in EA.
I think GPI is doing research on this, under cluelessness. See, for example:
I think GPI is doing research on this, under cluelessness. See, for example:
Andreas Mogensen, ‘Maximal Cluelessness’. Publication, GPI page (pdf), EA Forum post.
David Thorstad and Andreas Mogensen, ‘Heuristics for clueless agents: how to get away with ignoring what matters most in ordinary decision-making’.