Thanks for posting a follow-up. My understanding of your claim is something like:
It’s true that there is a nonzero probability of infinitely good or bad things happening over any timescale, making expected value calculations equally meaningless for short-term and long-term decisions. However, it’s fine to just ignore those infinities in the short-term but incorrect to ignore them in the long term. Therefore, short-term thinking is okay but long-term thinking is not.
Is that accurate? If so, could you elaborate on why you see this distinction?
I see no particular reason to think Pasadena games are more likely one thousand years from now than they are today (and indeed even using the phrase “more likely today” seems to sink the approach of avoiding probability).
Thanks for posting a follow-up. My understanding of your claim is something like:
Is that accurate? If so, could you elaborate on why you see this distinction?
I see no particular reason to think Pasadena games are more likely one thousand years from now than they are today (and indeed even using the phrase “more likely today” seems to sink the approach of avoiding probability).