This statement expresses a high degree of confidence in a claim that has, as far as I can tell, zero supporting evidence. I would strongly bet against the prediction that LLMs will never be able to originate an explanatory theory.
When? In 1 year, 10 years, 100 years, or 1000 years? And involving what new technological paradigms or new basic science?
I think the quoted claim is true as stated โ no LLM has created any explanatory theory so far.
I am not aware of any such insight? This claim seems easily falsified by the existence of superforecasters.
I think youโre misunderstanding the argument. No superforecaster has ever predicted the content of a new scientific discovery.
When? In 1 year, 10 years, 100 years, or 1000 years? And involving what new technological paradigms or new basic science?
I think the quoted claim is true as stated โ no LLM has created any explanatory theory so far.
I think youโre misunderstanding the argument. No superforecaster has ever predicted the content of a new scientific discovery.