Multipolar worlds will compete away >90% of net value that would otherwise be preserved.
Assuming multipolar worlds where humans retain control but loss of control risks are still real: Most models of AI tech races suggest strategic behavior competes away most future value, at least in the worst cases (Armstrong et al, The Han et al, Stafford et al, Emery-Xu et al, Jensen et al). While this is also true for unipolar scenarios (power concentration can lock-in risks that eliminate most of the value of the future) multipolar worlds are unique in that even when the players internalise much of the risks, they race to the bottom on safety (see the travellers dilemma or Armstrong et al’s racing to the precipice). They can even escalate into destructive conflict if they feel especially threatened by their rivals (see the crisis bargaining literature, or, for a more optimistic take, superintellegence strategy).
If we assume the AI systems are in control and in competition with one another to achieve their own goals, then many of the above issues could be amplified by faster AI optimisation that may be more likely by default to neglect other values humans (and other beings) care about. On the other hand, sophisticated AI systems could establish coordination mechanisms with each other. This is also true of global powers who could work establish verification regimes for international AI Governance. It’s not clear that AI systems would be better or worse than governments, but I lean towards worse by default.
Assuming multipolar worlds where humans retain control but loss of control risks are still real: Most models of AI tech races suggest strategic behavior competes away most future value, at least in the worst cases (Armstrong et al, The Han et al, Stafford et al, Emery-Xu et al, Jensen et al). While this is also true for unipolar scenarios (power concentration can lock-in risks that eliminate most of the value of the future) multipolar worlds are unique in that even when the players internalise much of the risks, they race to the bottom on safety (see the travellers dilemma or Armstrong et al’s racing to the precipice). They can even escalate into destructive conflict if they feel especially threatened by their rivals (see the crisis bargaining literature, or, for a more optimistic take, superintellegence strategy).
If we assume the AI systems are in control and in competition with one another to achieve their own goals, then many of the above issues could be amplified by faster AI optimisation that may be more likely by default to neglect other values humans (and other beings) care about. On the other hand, sophisticated AI systems could establish coordination mechanisms with each other. This is also true of global powers who could work establish verification regimes for international AI Governance. It’s not clear that AI systems would be better or worse than governments, but I lean towards worse by default.