I slightly disagreed with this statement and share some of the same thoughts. I think it’s quite likely to have a multi-polar world with fierce competition in the short term; however, in the long term equilibrium, I think the likely outcomes are either (1) we have a dominant winner or (2) we have more cooperation. So I averaged my short vs. long-term predictions.
I think it’s important to research into multi-polarity and the competition dynamic because what happens in the short term could impact what happens in the long term, possibly in non-intuitive ways. For instance, the most capable and resourced model/lab in the short term may not always win in the long term if others gang up on them or if the institutional environment uniquely disadvantages them.
I slightly disagreed with this statement and share some of the same thoughts. I think it’s quite likely to have a multi-polar world with fierce competition in the short term; however, in the long term equilibrium, I think the likely outcomes are either (1) we have a dominant winner or (2) we have more cooperation. So I averaged my short vs. long-term predictions.
I think it’s important to research into multi-polarity and the competition dynamic because what happens in the short term could impact what happens in the long term, possibly in non-intuitive ways. For instance, the most capable and resourced model/lab in the short term may not always win in the long term if others gang up on them or if the institutional environment uniquely disadvantages them.