@Austin and I made a nice visualization for election-conditioned prediction markets! https://policypredictions.com/ -- see how the markets think the world will look under Trump vs Harris
ooh that’s an interesting one, hadn’t seen it yet. if they make it real money I’ll totally add it! (otherwise the manipulation incentive vastly outweighs the incentive to correct it)
@Austin and I made a nice visualization for election-conditioned prediction markets!
https://policypredictions.com/ -- see how the markets think the world will look under Trump vs Harris
There’s an AI market on there just for EAs :)
How about adding this one?
https://manifold.markets/Siebe/if-trump-is-elected-will-the-us-sti
ooh that’s an interesting one, hadn’t seen it yet. if they make it real money I’ll totally add it! (otherwise the manipulation incentive vastly outweighs the incentive to correct it)