As an example of how powerful these demographic shifts will be, this recent paper claims that ~all of Japan’s poor economic performance relative to other developed nations since the ’90s can be explained by its demographic shift (specifically the decline in the population share of working age adults). Think about how much consternation there has been about Japan’s slow growth. We’re all headed that way.
Interestingly, AFAIK Japan has not drastically liberalized its immigration much in response to its slow growth. The proportion of foreign-born residents has grown a bit, but not much. Maybe this is changing, but we’ll see if anything actually happens, and Japan has been struggling to grow for decades.
As an example of how powerful these demographic shifts will be, this recent paper claims that ~all of Japan’s poor economic performance relative to other developed nations since the ’90s can be explained by its demographic shift (specifically the decline in the population share of working age adults). Think about how much consternation there has been about Japan’s slow growth. We’re all headed that way.
Interestingly, AFAIK Japan has not drastically liberalized its immigration much in response to its slow growth. The proportion of foreign-born residents has grown a bit, but not much. Maybe this is changing, but we’ll see if anything actually happens, and Japan has been struggling to grow for decades.