For me, the ones we should worry about are the ones which are most likely in the next 5-9 years.
If I understand the history (eg. several occasions when a USSR-USA nuclear war was almost triggered due to software errors) and the scenario analysis (ie. all the ways something similar could happen via the smaller nuclear powers) - the biggest near term likelihood is of an “accidental” regional nuclear war in the Middle East, perhaps because one country erroneously believes it is being attacked, or because one country has had its chain of command hacked or hijacked in an unexpected way.
I believe that the high likelihood from the smaller Middle East powers comes not from high likelihood of any one given scenario, but rather from the large number of pathways to a nuclear exchange, a “basket of risks”, each one individually being of low likelihood, but collectively adding up to a likelihood far bigger than any one scenario.
In case anyone thinks that a regional nuclear exchange wouldn’t be too bad, Robock et al have discussed direct consequences such as “nuclear autumn”, and cascading scenarios are obviously a risk.
For me, the ones we should worry about are the ones which are most likely in the next 5-9 years.
If I understand the history (eg. several occasions when a USSR-USA nuclear war was almost triggered due to software errors) and the scenario analysis (ie. all the ways something similar could happen via the smaller nuclear powers) - the biggest near term likelihood is of an “accidental” regional nuclear war in the Middle East, perhaps because one country erroneously believes it is being attacked, or because one country has had its chain of command hacked or hijacked in an unexpected way.
I believe that the high likelihood from the smaller Middle East powers comes not from high likelihood of any one given scenario, but rather from the large number of pathways to a nuclear exchange, a “basket of risks”, each one individually being of low likelihood, but collectively adding up to a likelihood far bigger than any one scenario.
In case anyone thinks that a regional nuclear exchange wouldn’t be too bad, Robock et al have discussed direct consequences such as “nuclear autumn”, and cascading scenarios are obviously a risk.
Paul Ingram (www.basicint.org/our-staff/paul-ingram) would be excellent to discuss this with, as he specialises in this area and has done since the late 1980s.