I find your comments painfully uncharitable, which really reduces my inclination to engage.
Really? I haven’t misinterpreted you in any way. I think the issue is that you don’t like my comments because I’m not being very nice. But you should be able to deal with comments which aren’t very nice.
If you can’t find an interpretation of my comment which isn’t just about the optimizer’s curse I don’t feel like helping you right now.
Yes, it’s specifically the effect of the optimizer’s curse in situations where the better options have more uncertainty regarding their EV estimates, but that’s the only time that the optimizer’s curse is decision relevant anyway, since all other instantiations of the optimizer’s curse modify expected utilities without doing anything to change the ordinal ranking. And the fact that this happens to be a case with 100 uncertain options rather than 1, or a large group of donors rather than just one, doesn’t modify the basic issue that people’s choices will be suboptimal, so the fact that you specified a very particular scenario doesn’t make it about anything other than the basic optimizer’s curse.
Really? I haven’t misinterpreted you in any way. I think the issue is that you don’t like my comments because I’m not being very nice. But you should be able to deal with comments which aren’t very nice.
Yes, it’s specifically the effect of the optimizer’s curse in situations where the better options have more uncertainty regarding their EV estimates, but that’s the only time that the optimizer’s curse is decision relevant anyway, since all other instantiations of the optimizer’s curse modify expected utilities without doing anything to change the ordinal ranking. And the fact that this happens to be a case with 100 uncertain options rather than 1, or a large group of donors rather than just one, doesn’t modify the basic issue that people’s choices will be suboptimal, so the fact that you specified a very particular scenario doesn’t make it about anything other than the basic optimizer’s curse.