You were getting disagree votes because it sounded like you were claiming certainty. I realize that you weren’t trying to do that, but that’s how people were taking it, and I find that quite understandable. Chicken as an analogy has certain death if neither player swerves, in the standard formulation. Qualifying your statement even a little would’ve gotten your point across better.
FWIW I agree with your statement as I interpret it. I do tend to think that an objective measure of misalignment risk (I place it around 50% largely based on model uncertainty on all sides) makes the question of which side is safer basically irrelevant.
Which highlights the problem with this type of miscomunnication. You were making probably by far the most important point here. It didn’t play a prominent role because it wasn’t communicated in a way the audience would understand.
You were getting disagree votes because it sounded like you were claiming certainty. I realize that you weren’t trying to do that, but that’s how people were taking it, and I find that quite understandable. Chicken as an analogy has certain death if neither player swerves, in the standard formulation. Qualifying your statement even a little would’ve gotten your point across better.
FWIW I agree with your statement as I interpret it. I do tend to think that an objective measure of misalignment risk (I place it around 50% largely based on model uncertainty on all sides) makes the question of which side is safer basically irrelevant.
Which highlights the problem with this type of miscomunnication. You were making probably by far the most important point here. It didn’t play a prominent role because it wasn’t communicated in a way the audience would understand.