I don’t quite get your right foot/left foot example. Cassie says that Utopi-doogle will soon ‘likely’ (I’ll assume this is somewhere around 70%-90%) explode, killing everyone, and that the only solution is for everyone to stamp the same foot at once; if they guess correctly as to which foot to stamp, they survive, otherwise, they die.
To me, it seems that the politician who starts the Left Foot Movement is attempting to bring them from ‘likely’ death (again, 70-90%), the case if nothing is done or if the foot stamps aren’t coordinated, to a new equilibrium with 50% chance of death; either he is correct and the world is saved, or he is wrong and the world is destroyed.
How is this a Pascal’s Mugging? If the politician’s movement succeeds, x-risk is reduced significantly, right?
The problem with reposting things that I wrote several weeks ago is that I can no longer remember the rationale that I had in mind when I wrote it! I’ll try to jog my memory and give a clearer explanation. (Hopefully the explanation isn’t that I just didn’t think carefully enough when putting the example together!)
I don’t quite get your right foot/left foot example. Cassie says that Utopi-doogle will soon ‘likely’ (I’ll assume this is somewhere around 70%-90%) explode, killing everyone, and that the only solution is for everyone to stamp the same foot at once; if they guess correctly as to which foot to stamp, they survive, otherwise, they die.
To me, it seems that the politician who starts the Left Foot Movement is attempting to bring them from ‘likely’ death (again, 70-90%), the case if nothing is done or if the foot stamps aren’t coordinated, to a new equilibrium with 50% chance of death; either he is correct and the world is saved, or he is wrong and the world is destroyed.
How is this a Pascal’s Mugging? If the politician’s movement succeeds, x-risk is reduced significantly, right?
The problem with reposting things that I wrote several weeks ago is that I can no longer remember the rationale that I had in mind when I wrote it! I’ll try to jog my memory and give a clearer explanation. (Hopefully the explanation isn’t that I just didn’t think carefully enough when putting the example together!)