I’m very unsure how many people and how much funding the effective altruism community should be allocating to nuclear risk reduction or related research, and I think it’s plausible we should be spending either substantially more or substantially less labor and funding on this cause than we currently are (see also Aird & Aldred, 2022a).[6] And I have a similar level of uncertainty about what “intermediate goals”[7] and interventions to prioritize—or actively avoid—within the area of nuclear risk reduction (see Aird & Aldred, 2022b). This is despite me having spent approximately half my time from late 2020 to late 2021 on research intended to answer these questions, which is—unfortunately! - enough to make me probably among the 5-20 members of the EA community with the best-informed views on those questions. [bold added]
This is pretty surprising to me. Do you have a sense of how much uncertainty you could have resolved if you spent another half-year working on this?
This is pretty surprising to me. Do you have a sense of how much uncertainty you could have resolved if you spent another half-year working on this?