Another risk is replacement by aliens (life or AI), either they get to where we want to expand to first and we’re prevented from generating much value there or we have to leave regions we previously occupied, or even have it all taken over. If they are expansive like “grabby aliens”, we might not be left with much or anything. We might expect aliens from multiple directions effectively boxing us in a bounded region of space.
A nonzero lower bound for the existential risk rate would be reasonable on this account, although I still wouldn’t assign full weight to this model, and might still assign some weight to decreasing risk models with risks approaching 0. Maybe we’re so far from aliens that we will practically never encounter them.
On the other hand, there seem to be some pretty hard limits on the value we can generate set by the accelerating expansion of the universe, but this is probably better captured with a bound on the number of terms in the sum and not an existential risk rate. This would prevent the sum from becoming infinite with high probability, although we might want to allow exotic possibilities of infinities.
Another risk is replacement by aliens (life or AI), either they get to where we want to expand to first and we’re prevented from generating much value there or we have to leave regions we previously occupied, or even have it all taken over. If they are expansive like “grabby aliens”, we might not be left with much or anything. We might expect aliens from multiple directions effectively boxing us in a bounded region of space.
A nonzero lower bound for the existential risk rate would be reasonable on this account, although I still wouldn’t assign full weight to this model, and might still assign some weight to decreasing risk models with risks approaching 0. Maybe we’re so far from aliens that we will practically never encounter them.
On the other hand, there seem to be some pretty hard limits on the value we can generate set by the accelerating expansion of the universe, but this is probably better captured with a bound on the number of terms in the sum and not an existential risk rate. This would prevent the sum from becoming infinite with high probability, although we might want to allow exotic possibilities of infinities.