It’s definitely right that if you plug in a moderately small chance (say, one in a million) of a strong version of the Time of Perils Hypothesis into these models, then on many assumptions you will get astronomical value for existential risk reduction.
What do you mean here by a strong version of the Time of Perils Hypothesis?
What do you mean here by a strong version of the Time of Perils Hypothesis?
Depends on the model! In this model I mean: very small N and r_l.