Could someone point to the actual quotes where Eliezer compares heliocentrism to MWI? I don’t generally assume that when people are ‘comparing’ two very-high-probability things, they’re saying they have the same probability. Among other things, I’d want confirmation that ‘Eliezer and Paul assign roughly the same probability to MWI, but they have different probability thresholds for comparing things to heliocentrism’ is false.
E.g., if I compare Flat Earther beliefs, beliefs in psychic powers, belief ‘AGI was secretly invented in the year 2000’, geocentrism, homeopathy, and theism to each other, it doesn’t follow that I’d assign the same probabilities to all of those six claims, or even probabilities that are within six orders of magnitude of each other.
In some contexts it might indeed Griceanly imply that all six of those things pass my threshold for ‘unlikely enough that I’m happy to call them all laughably silly views’, but different people have their threshold for that kind of thing in different places.
Could someone point to the actual quotes where Eliezer compares heliocentrism to MWI? I don’t generally assume that when people are ‘comparing’ two very-high-probability things, they’re saying they have the same probability. Among other things, I’d want confirmation that ‘Eliezer and Paul assign roughly the same probability to MWI, but they have different probability thresholds for comparing things to heliocentrism’ is false.
E.g., if I compare Flat Earther beliefs, beliefs in psychic powers, belief ‘AGI was secretly invented in the year 2000’, geocentrism, homeopathy, and theism to each other, it doesn’t follow that I’d assign the same probabilities to all of those six claims, or even probabilities that are within six orders of magnitude of each other.
In some contexts it might indeed Griceanly imply that all six of those things pass my threshold for ‘unlikely enough that I’m happy to call them all laughably silly views’, but different people have their threshold for that kind of thing in different places.