(i.e. most people who are likely to update downwards on Yudkowsky on the basis of this post, seem to me to be generically too trusting, and I am confident I can write a more compelling post about any other central figure in Effective Altruism that would likely cause you to update downwards even more)
My impression is the post is somewhat unfortunate attempt to “patch” the situation in which many generically too trusting people updated a lot on AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities and Death with Dignity and subsequent deference/update cascades.
In my view the deeper problem here is instead of disagreements about model internals, many of these people do some sort of “averaging conclusions” move, based on signals like seniority, karma, vibes, etc.
Many of these signals are currently wildly off from truth-tracking, so you get attempts to push the conclusion-updates directly.
My impression is the post is somewhat unfortunate attempt to “patch” the situation in which many generically too trusting people updated a lot on AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities and Death with Dignity and subsequent deference/update cascades.
In my view the deeper problem here is instead of disagreements about model internals, many of these people do some sort of “averaging conclusions” move, based on signals like seniority, karma, vibes, etc.
Many of these signals are currently wildly off from truth-tracking, so you get attempts to push the conclusion-updates directly.