Why do you think it suggests that? There are two MIRI responses in that range, but responses are anonymous, and most MIRI staff didn’t answer the survey.
I should have clarified that I think(or at least I thought so, prior to your question; kind of confused now) Yudkowsky’s answer is probably one of those two MIRI responses. Sorry about that.
I recall you or somebody else at MIRI once wrote something along the lines that most of MIRI researchers don’t actually believe that p(doom) is extremely high, like >90% doom. Then, in the linked post, there is a comment from someone who marked themselves both as a technical safety and strategy researcher and who gave 0.98, 0.96 on your questions. The style/content of the comment struck me as something Yudkowsky would have written.
Cool! I figured your reasoning was probably something along those lines, but I wanted to clarify that the survey is anonymous and hear your reasoning. I personally don’t know who wrote the response you’re talking about, and I’m very uncertain how many researchers at MIRI have 90+% p(doom), since only five MIRI researchers answered the survey (and marked that they’re from MIRI).
This survey suggests that he was at 96-98% a year ago.
Why do you think it suggests that? There are two MIRI responses in that range, but responses are anonymous, and most MIRI staff didn’t answer the survey.
I should have clarified that I think (or at least I thought so, prior to your question; kind of confused now) Yudkowsky’s answer is probably one of those two MIRI responses. Sorry about that.
I recall you or somebody else at MIRI once wrote something along the lines that most of MIRI researchers don’t actually believe that p(doom) is extremely high, like >90% doom. Then, in the linked post, there is a comment from someone who marked themselves both as a technical safety and strategy researcher and who gave 0.98, 0.96 on your questions. The style/content of the comment struck me as something Yudkowsky would have written.
Cool! I figured your reasoning was probably something along those lines, but I wanted to clarify that the survey is anonymous and hear your reasoning. I personally don’t know who wrote the response you’re talking about, and I’m very uncertain how many researchers at MIRI have 90+% p(doom), since only five MIRI researchers answered the survey (and marked that they’re from MIRI).