I interpreted Gwern as mostly highlighting that people have updated toward’s Yudkowsky’s views—and using this as evidence in favor of the view we should defer a decent amount to Yudkowsky. I think that was a reasonable move.
There is also a causal question here (‘Has Yudkowsky on-net increased levels of concern about AI risk relative to where they would otherwise be?’), but I didn’t take the causal question to be central to the point Gwern was making. Although now I’m less sure.
I don’t personally have strong views on the causal question—I haven’t thought through the counterfactual.
I interpreted Gwern as mostly highlighting that people have updated toward’s Yudkowsky’s views—and using this as evidence in favor of the view we should defer a decent amount to Yudkowsky. I think that was a reasonable move.
There is also a causal question here (‘Has Yudkowsky on-net increased levels of concern about AI risk relative to where they would otherwise be?’), but I didn’t take the causal question to be central to the point Gwern was making. Although now I’m less sure.
I don’t personally have strong views on the causal question—I haven’t thought through the counterfactual.