I think my views about takeoff speeds are generally similar to Robin’s though neither Robin nor Eliezer got at all concrete in that discussion so I can’t really say. You can read this essay from 1998 with his “outside-view” guesses, which I suspect are roughly in line with what he’s imagining in the FOOM debate.
I think that doc implies significant probability on a “slow” takeoff of 8, 4, 2… year doublings (more like the industrial revolution), but a broad distribution over dynamics which also puts significant probability on e.g. a relatively fast jump to a 1 month doubling time (more like the agricultural revolution). In either case, over the next few doublings he would by default expect still further acceleration. Overall I think this is basically a sensible model.
(I agree that shorter timelines generally suggest faster takeoff, but I think either Robin or Eliezer’s views about timelines would be consistent with either Robin or Eliezer’s views about takeoff speed.)
I think my views about takeoff speeds are generally similar to Robin’s though neither Robin nor Eliezer got at all concrete in that discussion so I can’t really say. You can read this essay from 1998 with his “outside-view” guesses, which I suspect are roughly in line with what he’s imagining in the FOOM debate.
I think that doc implies significant probability on a “slow” takeoff of 8, 4, 2… year doublings (more like the industrial revolution), but a broad distribution over dynamics which also puts significant probability on e.g. a relatively fast jump to a 1 month doubling time (more like the agricultural revolution). In either case, over the next few doublings he would by default expect still further acceleration. Overall I think this is basically a sensible model.
(I agree that shorter timelines generally suggest faster takeoff, but I think either Robin or Eliezer’s views about timelines would be consistent with either Robin or Eliezer’s views about takeoff speed.)