Re gradations of agency: Level 3 and level 4 seem within reach IMO. IIRC there are already some examples of neural nets being trained to watch other actors in some simulated environment and then imitate them. Also, model-based planning (i.e. level 4) is very much a thing, albeit something that human programmers seem to have to hard-code. I predict that within 5 years there will be systems which are unambiguously in level 3 and level 4, even if they aren’t perfect at it (hey, we humans aren’t perfect at it either).
Re gradations of agency: Level 3 and level 4 seem within reach IMO. IIRC there are already some examples of neural nets being trained to watch other actors in some simulated environment and then imitate them. Also, model-based planning (i.e. level 4) is very much a thing, albeit something that human programmers seem to have to hard-code. I predict that within 5 years there will be systems which are unambiguously in level 3 and level 4, even if they aren’t perfect at it (hey, we humans aren’t perfect at it either).