Yes, definitely much more than Philip Tetlock, given that our community had strong norms of forecasting and making bets before Tetlock had done most of his work on the topic (Expert Political Forecasting was out, but as far as I can tell was not a major influence on people in the community, though I am not totally confident of that).
Does that particular quote from Yudkowsky not strike you as slightly arrogant?
I am generally strongly against a culture of fake modesty. If I want people to make good decisions, they need to be able to believe things about them that might sound arrogant to others. Yes, it sounds arrogant to an external audience, but it also seems true, and it seems like whether it is true should be the dominant fact on whether it is good to say.
Yes, definitely much more than Philip Tetlock, given that our community had strong norms of forecasting and making bets before Tetlock had done most of his work on the topic (Expert Political Forecasting was out, but as far as I can tell was not a major influence on people in the community, though I am not totally confident of that).
I am generally strongly against a culture of fake modesty. If I want people to make good decisions, they need to be able to believe things about them that might sound arrogant to others. Yes, it sounds arrogant to an external audience, but it also seems true, and it seems like whether it is true should be the dominant fact on whether it is good to say.