I think the effect should depend on your existing view. If you’ve always engaged directly with Yudkowsky’s arguments and chose the ones convinced you, there’s nothing to learn. If you thought he was a unique genius and always assumed you weren’t convinced of things because he understood things you didn’t know about, and believed him anyway, maybe it’s time to dial it back. If you’d always assumed he’s wrong about literally everything, it should be telling for you that OP had to go 15 years back for good examples.
Writing this comment actually helped me understand how to respond to the OP myself.
‘If you’d always assumed he’s wrong about literally everything, it should be telling for you that OP had to go 15 years back to get good examples.’ How strong evidence this is also depends on whether he has made many resolvable predictions since 15-years ago, right? If he hasn’t it’s not very telling. To be clear, I genuinely don’t know if he has or hasn’t.
I think the effect should depend on your existing view. If you’ve always engaged directly with Yudkowsky’s arguments and chose the ones convinced you, there’s nothing to learn. If you thought he was a unique genius and always assumed you weren’t convinced of things because he understood things you didn’t know about, and believed him anyway, maybe it’s time to dial it back. If you’d always assumed he’s wrong about literally everything, it should be telling for you that OP had to go 15 years back for good examples.
Writing this comment actually helped me understand how to respond to the OP myself.
‘If you’d always assumed he’s wrong about literally everything, it should be telling for you that OP had to go 15 years back to get good examples.’ How strong evidence this is also depends on whether he has made many resolvable predictions since 15-years ago, right? If he hasn’t it’s not very telling. To be clear, I genuinely don’t know if he has or hasn’t.
Sounds reasonable. Though predictions aren’t the only thing one can be demonstratably wrong about.