> I do not want an epistemic culture that finds it acceptable to challenge an individuals overall credibility in lieu of directly engaging with their arguments.
I think it’s fair to talk about a person’s lifetime performance when we are talking about forecasting. When we don’t have the expertise ourselves, all we have to go on is what little we understand and the track records of the experts we defer to. Many people defer to Eliezer so I think it’s a service to lay out his track record so that we can know how meaningful his levels of confidence and special insights into this kind of problem are.
> I do not want an epistemic culture that finds it acceptable to challenge an individuals overall credibility in lieu of directly engaging with their arguments.
I think it’s fair to talk about a person’s lifetime performance when we are talking about forecasting. When we don’t have the expertise ourselves, all we have to go on is what little we understand and the track records of the experts we defer to. Many people defer to Eliezer so I think it’s a service to lay out his track record so that we can know how meaningful his levels of confidence and special insights into this kind of problem are.