But I also think they’re just hilariously wrong about the odds that an altruistic movement focused on either making the world better for people alive today or on surviving the next century will be coopted by ‘well, if your children commit to having eight children...’
Nitpick: Longtermism does do work on beyond the next century right? But yeah I agree, I don’t think EA will be co-opted like this, but I also don’t think the co-opting will look like a group of people randomly coming up to EA and saying “hey you all should have 8 children, lets sign a pact”.
But it could look something like:
Funding research and advocacy that advocates for increasing birth rates/demographics-related topics
Funding genetic engineering or IVF research or reproductive technologies
Proposing population collapse as a new cause area
Using shared language like “preserving future generations”, “preventing technological stagnation”, “preserving longtermist values/EA values” “ensuring moral progress” to justify things that might/could pass the bar on longtermist grounds, but also are beneficial for population growth.
It could also be the case that a large influx of funding means that the longtermism funding bar becomes much lower, such that this seems fine compared to a lot of other things that are being funded. After all, the other areas are talent constrained anyway, so it’s not like funding this is harmful.
Of course, these things could be good to fund/research regardless, and I’m not suggesting these things shouldn’t be funded on principle. But the point is that if there’s a plan to co-opt the EA/longtermist movement or piggy back off its influence, it’s not going to be obvious. This is getting a little conspiratorial (I probably would have dismissed it if it wasn’t a literal quote), and none of these claims are particularly falsifiable, so it’s probably not worth too much discussion time anyway. I’m just bringing this to the attention of people who should be caring about this, and people who might have more reliable information about the overlaps in subcultures to chime in.
Yeah I basically agree with all of this!
Nitpick: Longtermism does do work on beyond the next century right? But yeah I agree, I don’t think EA will be co-opted like this, but I also don’t think the co-opting will look like a group of people randomly coming up to EA and saying “hey you all should have 8 children, lets sign a pact”.
But it could look something like:
Funding research and advocacy that advocates for increasing birth rates/demographics-related topics
Funding genetic engineering or IVF research or reproductive technologies
Proposing population collapse as a new cause area
Using shared language like “preserving future generations”, “preventing technological stagnation”, “preserving longtermist values/EA values” “ensuring moral progress” to justify things that might/could pass the bar on longtermist grounds, but also are beneficial for population growth.
It could also be the case that a large influx of funding means that the longtermism funding bar becomes much lower, such that this seems fine compared to a lot of other things that are being funded. After all, the other areas are talent constrained anyway, so it’s not like funding this is harmful.
Of course, these things could be good to fund/research regardless, and I’m not suggesting these things shouldn’t be funded on principle. But the point is that if there’s a plan to co-opt the EA/longtermist movement or piggy back off its influence, it’s not going to be obvious. This is getting a little conspiratorial (I probably would have dismissed it if it wasn’t a literal quote), and none of these claims are particularly falsifiable, so it’s probably not worth too much discussion time anyway. I’m just bringing this to the attention of people who should be caring about this, and people who might have more reliable information about the overlaps in subcultures to chime in.