I think we might be talking past each other. I’m just trying to make the point in the above table: the delaying tactic is not the most effective in a long timelines world, but it is the most effective in a short timelines world. (I think you agree?)
Thanks for being so patient! I understand what you mean now. You agree the cost-effectiveness of the delay is the same in both scenarios, but are pointing out that the difference between the cost-effectiveness of the delay and that of other tactics decreases if farming becomes irrelevant sooner. I got confused because whether tactics involve delays or not is not what really matters for how their cost-effectiveness is affected by the time when farming becomes irrelevant. What matters is that their (counterfactual) effects materialise soon such that they are not heavily discounted. An intervention delaying the construction of a farm for a super long time would be a delaying tactic, but short timelines would decrease the vast majority of its value. In contrast, buying beef does not involve any delays, but arguably helps soil animals via increasing agricultural land for a few years after the beef is bought, so it would not be affected by short timelines.
I think we might be talking past each other. I’m just trying to make the point in the above table: the delaying tactic is not the most effective in a long timelines world, but it is the most effective in a short timelines world. (I think you agree?)
Thanks for being so patient! I understand what you mean now. You agree the cost-effectiveness of the delay is the same in both scenarios, but are pointing out that the difference between the cost-effectiveness of the delay and that of other tactics decreases if farming becomes irrelevant sooner. I got confused because whether tactics involve delays or not is not what really matters for how their cost-effectiveness is affected by the time when farming becomes irrelevant. What matters is that their (counterfactual) effects materialise soon such that they are not heavily discounted. An intervention delaying the construction of a farm for a super long time would be a delaying tactic, but short timelines would decrease the vast majority of its value. In contrast, buying beef does not involve any delays, but arguably helps soil animals via increasing agricultural land for a few years after the beef is bought, so it would not be affected by short timelines.