Somewhat relatedly, readers may want to check the thoughts of participants in the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT) on the global catastrophic risk from engineered pathogens[1] (pp. 241 to 251), including:
“Sources of agreement, disagreement and uncertainty”.
“Arguments given for forecasts ≤ 6.3%”.
“Arguments given for forecasts ≥ 7.69%”.
It is just worth having in mind:
The sample drew heavily from the Effective Altruism (EA) community: about 42% of experts and 9% of superforecasters reported that they had attended an EA meetup. In this report, we separately present forecasts from domain experts and non-domain experts on each question.
“Probability that a genetically-engineered pathogen will be the cause of death, within a 5-year period, for more than 1% of humans alive at the beginning of that period”.
Thanks for sharing!
Somewhat relatedly, readers may want to check the thoughts of participants in the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT) on the global catastrophic risk from engineered pathogens[1] (pp. 241 to 251), including:
“Sources of agreement, disagreement and uncertainty”.
“Arguments given for forecasts ≤ 6.3%”.
“Arguments given for forecasts ≥ 7.69%”.
It is just worth having in mind:
“Probability that a genetically-engineered pathogen will be the cause of death, within
a 5-year period, for more than 1% of humans alive at the beginning of that period”.