It seems that your original comment no longer holds under this version of “1% better”, no? In what way does being 1% better at all these skills translate to being 30x better over a year? How do we even aggregate these 1% improvements under the new definition?
Anyway, even under this definition it seems hard to keep finding skills that one can get 1% better at within one day easily. At some point you would probably run into diminishing returns across skills—that is, the “low-hanging fruit” of skills you can improve at easily will have been picked.
I definitely agree- the calculation that I had in mind, and physically wrote, clearly had in mind the 1% compounding on itself.
I have two defenses that it is still a helpful way of looking at it:
This was a heuristic, and getting a little better every day will still stack in the way that I and the reader had in mind when reading/writing the quote, even if the math wasn’t completely accurate for something like a daily 1% yielding something towards a 30x improvement per year.
Getting better at different tasks over the course of the year will still multiply, such as getting better at different tasks related to working on/thinking about/solving AI alignment.
It seems that your original comment no longer holds under this version of “1% better”, no? In what way does being 1% better at all these skills translate to being 30x better over a year? How do we even aggregate these 1% improvements under the new definition?
Anyway, even under this definition it seems hard to keep finding skills that one can get 1% better at within one day easily. At some point you would probably run into diminishing returns across skills—that is, the “low-hanging fruit” of skills you can improve at easily will have been picked.
I definitely agree- the calculation that I had in mind, and physically wrote, clearly had in mind the 1% compounding on itself.
I have two defenses that it is still a helpful way of looking at it:
This was a heuristic, and getting a little better every day will still stack in the way that I and the reader had in mind when reading/writing the quote, even if the math wasn’t completely accurate for something like a daily 1% yielding something towards a 30x improvement per year.
Getting better at different tasks over the course of the year will still multiply, such as getting better at different tasks related to working on/thinking about/solving AI alignment.