10% chance of a 10%[1] chance of extinction happening within 5 years[2] is more than enough to be shutting it all down immediately[3]. It’s actually kind of absurd how tolerant of death risk people are on this relative to those from the pharmaceutical, nuclear or aviation industries.
10% chance of a 10%[1] chance of extinction happening within 5 years[2] is more than enough to be shutting it all down immediately[3]. It’s actually kind of absurd how tolerant of death risk people are on this relative to those from the pharmaceutical, nuclear or aviation industries.
I outline here why 10% should be used rather than 50%.
Eyeballing the graph here, it looks like at least 10% by 2030.
I think it’s more like 90% [p(doom|AGI)] chance of a 50% chance [p(AGI in 5 years)].