we use our uncertainty quantification to calculate the Expected Value of Perfect Information on all GiveWell Top Charities, and find that the cost would outweigh the benefits if GiveWell were to spend more than 11.25% of their budget on research for this information.
Small point: I would replace ‘budget’ with ‘funds they expect to influence’; considering the time horizon for this is difficult though, it probably requires a model of how the benefit of the research evolves over time, and some sort of explore/exploit modeling;
Finger-exercise: If we think GW influences 500 million per year over the next 10 years, or 5 billion in total, 11% is 550 million, 1% 55 million. … or 5.5 million per year. (But as I said in the other comment, I don’t know where that ‘1/10th rule’ came from).
I guess this assumes that all of the money they shift are allocated to the single top-EV charity.
Small point: I would replace ‘budget’ with ‘funds they expect to influence’; considering the time horizon for this is difficult though, it probably requires a model of how the benefit of the research evolves over time, and some sort of explore/exploit modeling;
Finger-exercise: If we think GW influences 500 million per year over the next 10 years, or 5 billion in total, 11% is 550 million, 1% 55 million. … or 5.5 million per year. (But as I said in the other comment, I don’t know where that ‘1/10th rule’ came from).
I guess this assumes that all of the money they shift are allocated to the single top-EV charity.
https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/charities/givewell-unrestricted-fund suggests their operating expenses are about $11 million per year. But:
that’s not all research obviously
on the other hand, there are many others doing research in this space
on the other hand, there are benefits outside GW
But of course this doesn’t count the VOI for the arrival of new charities, which could justify a greater expense.