I listened to Luisa’s podcast a while ago but don’t really remember it so thank you for the clarification. I will go ahead and say that might be a bad definition to use. If anyone who had any knowledge about the nuclear protocol of any country with an arsenal survived, then plausibly we could launch dozens + nukes once we got a few basic functionalities up and running. Similar things could be said about AGI, if we imagine it has been invented before the collapse. I guess this does start to get really in the weeds of each countries nuclear protocall and how easy it would be to access them just based on the systematic defenses in place. I am completely out of my depth here. It’s possible that without a bunch of passcodes or people who remember certain things and have access to certain doors it’s all impossible. But on the other hand if most people are dead you can just start dynamiting parts of the pentagon until you find the right room...
( I think it’s an open question if nukes actually pose an existential risk until you start launching absurd amounts of them, something Luisa herself has done research on IIRC. Still, i’m mainly going off of getting to the level of destruction we could have created in 1945)
It seems like it is the creation of new objects and technology that will take a lot of time. Weapons of mass destruction will still exist, and perhaps be even easier to access for pernicious uses (but like I said I don’t have a clear idea of this).
I listened to Luisa’s podcast a while ago but don’t really remember it so thank you for the clarification. I will go ahead and say that might be a bad definition to use. If anyone who had any knowledge about the nuclear protocol of any country with an arsenal survived, then plausibly we could launch dozens + nukes once we got a few basic functionalities up and running. Similar things could be said about AGI, if we imagine it has been invented before the collapse. I guess this does start to get really in the weeds of each countries nuclear protocall and how easy it would be to access them just based on the systematic defenses in place. I am completely out of my depth here. It’s possible that without a bunch of passcodes or people who remember certain things and have access to certain doors it’s all impossible. But on the other hand if most people are dead you can just start dynamiting parts of the pentagon until you find the right room...
( I think it’s an open question if nukes actually pose an existential risk until you start launching absurd amounts of them, something Luisa herself has done research on IIRC. Still, i’m mainly going off of getting to the level of destruction we could have created in 1945)
It seems like it is the creation of new objects and technology that will take a lot of time. Weapons of mass destruction will still exist, and perhaps be even easier to access for pernicious uses (but like I said I don’t have a clear idea of this).