It doesnāt follow from āwe donāt know the net direction of the consequences weāre unaware ofā that we should regard the positives and negatives as precisely symmetric. One reason symmetry is implausible: If we become aware of a new possible consequence, this should update our beliefs about the others weāre unaware of, breaking the symmetry.
Thatās great news. Youāre saying that we have information about which direction our estimates are biased? Then cluelessness is false! We should update our estimates in the direction indicated by the information we become aware of, making a new, more accurate estimate, and act upon that.
Iām not saying we have information that updates us in a particular direction about the bias. Iām saying we have information suggesting various different directions, and itās ambiguous what the update should be overall ā which is fundamentally different from āno updateā. I strongly recommend reading sections 2.1 and 2.4 of this post, as well as 3.2.1 of this post, to understand the epistemology thatās at play here.
(ETA: The final paragraphs of sec 4.1.1, linked right after the part you quoted, also discuss this point.)
Thatās great news. Youāre saying that we have information about which direction our estimates are biased? Then cluelessness is false! We should update our estimates in the direction indicated by the information we become aware of, making a new, more accurate estimate, and act upon that.
Iām not saying we have information that updates us in a particular direction about the bias. Iām saying we have information suggesting various different directions, and itās ambiguous what the update should be overall ā which is fundamentally different from āno updateā. I strongly recommend reading sections 2.1 and 2.4 of this post, as well as 3.2.1 of this post, to understand the epistemology thatās at play here.
(ETA: The final paragraphs of sec 4.1.1, linked right after the part you quoted, also discuss this point.)