It’s an interesting question to what degree AI and related technologies will strengthen offensive vs defensive capabilities.
You seem to think that they strengthen offensive capabilities a lot more, leading to “ever larger threats”. If true, this would be markedly different from other areas. For example, in information security, techniques like fuzz testing led to better exploits, but also made software a lot safer overall. In biosecurity, new technologies contribute to new threats, but also speed up detection and make vaccine development cheaper. Andy Weber discusses that bioweapons might become obsolete on the 80000hours.org podcast. Similar trends might apply to AI.
Overall, it seems this is not such a clear case as you believe it to be.
It’s an interesting question to what degree AI and related technologies will strengthen offensive vs defensive capabilities.
You seem to think that they strengthen offensive capabilities a lot more, leading to “ever larger threats”. If true, this would be markedly different from other areas. For example, in information security, techniques like fuzz testing led to better exploits, but also made software a lot safer overall. In biosecurity, new technologies contribute to new threats, but also speed up detection and make vaccine development cheaper. Andy Weber discusses that bioweapons might become obsolete on the 80000hours.org podcast. Similar trends might apply to AI.
Overall, it seems this is not such a clear case as you believe it to be.