Thank you for this detailed reply. I really appreciate it.
I overall like the point of preventing harm. It seems that there are two kinds: (1) small harms like breaking a glass bottle. I absolutely agree that this is good, but I think that typical longtermist arguments don’t apply here, because such actions do not have a lasting effect on the future. (2) large, irreversible harms like ocean pollution. Here, I think we are back to the tractability issues that I write about in the post. It is extremely difficult to reliably improve ocean health. Much of the work is indirect (e.g., write a book to promote veganism ⇒ fewer people eat fish ⇒ reduced demand causes less fishing ⇒ fish populations improve).
Projects that preserve knowledge for the future (like the Lunar Library) are probably net positive. I agree with you on this. However, the scenarios where these projects have a large impact are very exotic; many improbable conditions would need to happen together. So again, this is very indirect work, and it’s quite likely to have zero benefit.
Improving human genes and physical experiences is intriguing. I haven’t thought much about it before. Thank you for the idea. I’ll do more thinking, but would like to mention that past efforts in this area have often gone horribly wrong, for example the eugenics movement in the Nazi era. There is also positive precedent, though: I believe GMO crops are probably a net win for agriculture.
In the last part of your answer, you mention coordination problems, misaligned incentives, errors… I think we agree 100% here. These problems are a big part of why I think work for improving the far future is so intractable. Even work for improving today’s world is difficult, but at least this work has data, experiments, and fast feedback (like in the deworming case).
Well, as far as the improving human genes goes, I’ve seen my own 23andme and additional analyses of my DNA, and I’m not impressed with my genetic endowment. I have a wish list for improvements to it should genetic modification in adults become cheap. As is, I wouldn’t want to pass my genes onto any children if I hadn’t already gotten a vasectomy. But I’m not into having children. Meanwhile, genetic modification to remove the threat of disease from people already living is just getting started. Someday, though, it will be a cheap and quick walk-in visit to a genetic modification clinic for some future people to feel better, live longer, and have healthier skin.
There’s also epigenetics, where people would correct the expression of genes they pass on to their unborn children. For example, why give my kids a problem just because I was a bad boy and ate too much sugar in my life? *sigh*
I’m also interested in treatments to correct bacterial populations that children inherit as babies, and medical efforts to recolonize one’s own bacterial populations (on the skin, in the gut, inside the mouth) with better, more vigorous, perhaps genetically modified, bacteria suited to purpose. Some examples one might think are about personal genetic modifications might be better described as changes to personal bacterial colonies.
I’m coming back after thinking a bit more about improving human genes. I think there are three cases to consider:
Improving a living person, e.g., stem cell treatments or improved gut bacteria: These are firmly in the realm of near-term health interventions, and so we should compare their cost-effectiveness to that of bednets, vaccines, deworming pills etc. There is no first-order effect on the far future.
Heritable improvements: These are actually similar, since the number of people with a given gene stays constant in a stable population (women have two children, one of which gets the gene, so there is one copy in each generation[1]). Unless there’s a fitness advantage; but human fitness seems increasingly disconnected from our genes. We also have a long generation time of ~30 years, so genes spread slowly.
Wild stuff: Gene drives, clones, influencing the genes on a seed spaceship… I think these again belong to the intractable, potentially-negative interventions.
To sum up, I don’t think human gene improvement is one of the reliable ways to improve the future that I’m looking for in this question :(
Thank you for this detailed reply. I really appreciate it.
I overall like the point of preventing harm. It seems that there are two kinds: (1) small harms like breaking a glass bottle. I absolutely agree that this is good, but I think that typical longtermist arguments don’t apply here, because such actions do not have a lasting effect on the future. (2) large, irreversible harms like ocean pollution. Here, I think we are back to the tractability issues that I write about in the post. It is extremely difficult to reliably improve ocean health. Much of the work is indirect (e.g., write a book to promote veganism ⇒ fewer people eat fish ⇒ reduced demand causes less fishing ⇒ fish populations improve).
Projects that preserve knowledge for the future (like the Lunar Library) are probably net positive. I agree with you on this. However, the scenarios where these projects have a large impact are very exotic; many improbable conditions would need to happen together. So again, this is very indirect work, and it’s quite likely to have zero benefit.
Improving human genes and physical experiences is intriguing. I haven’t thought much about it before. Thank you for the idea. I’ll do more thinking, but would like to mention that past efforts in this area have often gone horribly wrong, for example the eugenics movement in the Nazi era. There is also positive precedent, though: I believe GMO crops are probably a net win for agriculture.
In the last part of your answer, you mention coordination problems, misaligned incentives, errors… I think we agree 100% here. These problems are a big part of why I think work for improving the far future is so intractable. Even work for improving today’s world is difficult, but at least this work has data, experiments, and fast feedback (like in the deworming case).
Well, as far as the improving human genes goes, I’ve seen my own 23andme and additional analyses of my DNA, and I’m not impressed with my genetic endowment. I have a wish list for improvements to it should genetic modification in adults become cheap. As is, I wouldn’t want to pass my genes onto any children if I hadn’t already gotten a vasectomy. But I’m not into having children. Meanwhile, genetic modification to remove the threat of disease from people already living is just getting started. Someday, though, it will be a cheap and quick walk-in visit to a genetic modification clinic for some future people to feel better, live longer, and have healthier skin.
There’s also epigenetics, where people would correct the expression of genes they pass on to their unborn children. For example, why give my kids a problem just because I was a bad boy and ate too much sugar in my life? *sigh*
I’m also interested in treatments to correct bacterial populations that children inherit as babies, and medical efforts to recolonize one’s own bacterial populations (on the skin, in the gut, inside the mouth) with better, more vigorous, perhaps genetically modified, bacteria suited to purpose. Some examples one might think are about personal genetic modifications might be better described as changes to personal bacterial colonies.
I’m coming back after thinking a bit more about improving human genes. I think there are three cases to consider:
Improving a living person, e.g., stem cell treatments or improved gut bacteria: These are firmly in the realm of near-term health interventions, and so we should compare their cost-effectiveness to that of bednets, vaccines, deworming pills etc. There is no first-order effect on the far future.
Heritable improvements: These are actually similar, since the number of people with a given gene stays constant in a stable population (women have two children, one of which gets the gene, so there is one copy in each generation[1]). Unless there’s a fitness advantage; but human fitness seems increasingly disconnected from our genes. We also have a long generation time of ~30 years, so genes spread slowly.
Wild stuff: Gene drives, clones, influencing the genes on a seed spaceship… I think these again belong to the intractable, potentially-negative interventions.
To sum up, I don’t think human gene improvement is one of the reliable ways to improve the future that I’m looking for in this question :(
Maybe that would be different for inheritable bacterial populations… I don’t know how these work.