Out of these, Canada and Russia will probably have fewer decisions to make since they already have large populations and will likely see a smooth transition into a billion+ people country. Antarctica could be promising to influence, but it will be difficult for a single effective altruist since multiple large countries lay claims on Antarctica (i.e. more competition). Greenland however is much more interesting.
It’s kinda easy for Danes to influence Greenland
Denmark is a small-ish country with a population of ~5.7 million people. There’s really not much competition if one wants to enter politics (if you’re a Dane you might correct me on this). The level of competition is much lower than conventional EA careers since you only need to compete with people within Denmark.
There are unsolved questions wrt Greenland
There’s a good chance Denmark will sell Greenland because they could get absurd amounts of money. Moreover, Greenland is not of much value to them since Denmark will mostly remain inhabitable and they don’t have a large population to resettle. Do you sell Greenland to a peaceful/neutral country? To the highest bidder? Is it okay to sell it to a historically aggresive country? Are there some countries you want to avoid selling it to because they will gain too much influence? USA, China and Russia have shown interest in buying Greenland.
Should Denmark just keep Greenland, allow mass immigration and become the next superpower?
The total drylands population is 35% of the world population (~6% from desert/semi-desert). The total number of migrants, however, is 3.5% of world population. So less than 10% of those from drylands have left. But most such migrants move because of politics, war, employment rather than climate. The number leaving because of climate is less (and possibly much less) than 5% of the drylands population.
So suppose a billion people newly found themselves in drylands or desert, and that 5% migrated, making 50M migrants. Probably too few of these people will go to any country, let alone Greenland, to make it into a new superpower. But let’s run the numbers for Greenland anyway. Of the world’s 300M migrants, Greenland currently has only ~10k. So of an extra 50M, Greenland could be expected to take ~2k, so I’m coming in 5-6 orders of magnitude lower than the 1B figure.
It does still have some military relevance, and would be good to keep it neutral, or at least out of the hands of China/Russia.
It seems like we’ve identified a crux here: what will be the total number of people living in Greenland in 2100 / world with 4 degrees warming?
I have disagreements with some of your estimates.
The total drylands population is 35% of the world population
Large populations currently reside in places like India, China and Brazil. These currently non-drylands could be converted to drylands in the future (and also possibly desertified). Thus, the 35% figure could increase in the future.
So less than 10% of those from drylands have left.
Drylands are categorised into {desert, arid, semi-arid, dry sub-humid}. It’s only when a place is in the desert category, that people seriously consider moving out (for reference all of California comes under arid or semi-arid category). In the future, deserts could form a larger share of drylands, and less arid regions could form a smaller share. So, you could have more than 10% of people from places called “drylands” leaving in the future.
The total number of migrants, however, is 3.5% of world population.
Yes, that is correct. But that is also a figure from 2019. A more relevant question would be how many migrants would there be in 2100? I think it’s quite obvious that as the Earth warms, the number of climate migrants will increase.
So suppose a billion people newly found themselves in drylands or desert, and that 5% migrated, making 50M migrants.
I don’t really agree with the 5% estimate. Specifically for desertified lands, I would guess the %age of people migrating to be significantly higher.
Of the world’s 300M migrants, Greenland currently has only ~10k.
This is a figure from 2020 and I don’t think you can simply extrapolate this.
After revising my estimates to something more sensible, I’m coming with ~50M people in Greenland. So, Greenland would be far from being a superpower. I’m hesitant to share my calculations because my confidence level for my calculations is low—I wouldn’t be surprised if the actual number was upto 2 orders of magnitude smaller or greater.
A key uncertainity: Does desertification of large regions imply that in-country / local migration is useless?
The world, 4 degrees warmer. A map from Parag Khanna’s book Connectography
I’m not sure you’ve understood how I’m calculating my figures, so let me show how we can set a really conservative upper bound for the number of people who would move to Greenland.
Based on current numbers, 3.5% of world population are migrants, and 6% are in deserts. So that means less than 3.5/9.5=37% of desert populations have migrated. Even if half of those had migrated because of the weather, that would be less than 20% of all desert populations. Moreover, even if people migrated uniformly according to land area, only 1.4% of migrants would move to Greenland (that’s the fraction of land area occupied by Greenland). So an ultra-conservative upper bound for the number of people migrating to Greenland would be 1B*.37*.2*.014=1M.
So my initial status-quo estimate was 1e3, and my ultra-conservative estimate was 1e6. It seems pretty likely to me that the true figure will be 1e3-1e6, whereas 5e7 is certainly not a realistic estimate.
Hmm this is interesting. I think I broadly agree with you. I think a key consideration is that humans have a good-ish track record of living/surviving in deserts, and I would expect this to continue.
High impact career for Danish people: Influencing what will happen with Greenland
EDIT: Comments give a good counter-argument against my views!
Climate change could get really bad. Let’s imagine a world with 4 degrees warming. This would probably mean mass migration of billions of people to Canada, Russia, Antartica and Greenland.
Out of these, Canada and Russia will probably have fewer decisions to make since they already have large populations and will likely see a smooth transition into a billion+ people country. Antarctica could be promising to influence, but it will be difficult for a single effective altruist since multiple large countries lay claims on Antarctica (i.e. more competition). Greenland however is much more interesting.
It’s kinda easy for Danes to influence Greenland
Denmark is a small-ish country with a population of ~5.7 million people. There’s really not much competition if one wants to enter politics (if you’re a Dane you might correct me on this). The level of competition is much lower than conventional EA careers since you only need to compete with people within Denmark.
There are unsolved questions wrt Greenland
There’s a good chance Denmark will sell Greenland because they could get absurd amounts of money. Moreover, Greenland is not of much value to them since Denmark will mostly remain inhabitable and they don’t have a large population to resettle. Do you sell Greenland to a peaceful/neutral country? To the highest bidder? Is it okay to sell it to a historically aggresive country? Are there some countries you want to avoid selling it to because they will gain too much influence? USA, China and Russia have shown interest in buying Greenland.
Should Denmark just keep Greenland, allow mass immigration and become the next superpower?
Should Greenland remain autonomous?
Importance
Greenland, with a billion+ people living in it, could be the next superpower. Just like how most of the emerging technology (e.g. AI, biotechnology, nanotechnology) are developed in current superpowers like USA and China, future technologies could be developed in Greenland.
In a world of extreme climate change, it is possible that 1-2 billion people could live in Greenland. That’s a lot of lives you could influence.
Greenland has a strategic geographic location. If a country with bad intentions buys Greenland, that could be catastrophic for world peace.
The total drylands population is 35% of the world population (~6% from desert/semi-desert). The total number of migrants, however, is 3.5% of world population. So less than 10% of those from drylands have left. But most such migrants move because of politics, war, employment rather than climate. The number leaving because of climate is less (and possibly much less) than 5% of the drylands population.
So suppose a billion people newly found themselves in drylands or desert, and that 5% migrated, making 50M migrants. Probably too few of these people will go to any country, let alone Greenland, to make it into a new superpower. But let’s run the numbers for Greenland anyway. Of the world’s 300M migrants, Greenland currently has only ~10k. So of an extra 50M, Greenland could be expected to take ~2k, so I’m coming in 5-6 orders of magnitude lower than the 1B figure.
It does still have some military relevance, and would be good to keep it neutral, or at least out of the hands of China/Russia.
Thanks Ryan for your comment!
It seems like we’ve identified a crux here: what will be the total number of people living in Greenland in 2100 / world with 4 degrees warming?
I have disagreements with some of your estimates.
Large populations currently reside in places like India, China and Brazil. These currently non-drylands could be converted to drylands in the future (and also possibly desertified). Thus, the 35% figure could increase in the future.
Drylands are categorised into {desert, arid, semi-arid, dry sub-humid}. It’s only when a place is in the desert category, that people seriously consider moving out (for reference all of California comes under arid or semi-arid category). In the future, deserts could form a larger share of drylands, and less arid regions could form a smaller share. So, you could have more than 10% of people from places called “drylands” leaving in the future.
Yes, that is correct. But that is also a figure from 2019. A more relevant question would be how many migrants would there be in 2100? I think it’s quite obvious that as the Earth warms, the number of climate migrants will increase.
I don’t really agree with the 5% estimate. Specifically for desertified lands, I would guess the %age of people migrating to be significantly higher.
This is a figure from 2020 and I don’t think you can simply extrapolate this.
After revising my estimates to something more sensible, I’m coming with ~50M people in Greenland. So, Greenland would be far from being a superpower. I’m hesitant to share my calculations because my confidence level for my calculations is low—I wouldn’t be surprised if the actual number was upto 2 orders of magnitude smaller or greater.
A key uncertainity: Does desertification of large regions imply that in-country / local migration is useless?
I’m not sure you’ve understood how I’m calculating my figures, so let me show how we can set a really conservative upper bound for the number of people who would move to Greenland.
Based on current numbers, 3.5% of world population are migrants, and 6% are in deserts. So that means less than 3.5/9.5=37% of desert populations have migrated. Even if half of those had migrated because of the weather, that would be less than 20% of all desert populations. Moreover, even if people migrated uniformly according to land area, only 1.4% of migrants would move to Greenland (that’s the fraction of land area occupied by Greenland). So an ultra-conservative upper bound for the number of people migrating to Greenland would be 1B*.37*.2*.014=1M.
So my initial status-quo estimate was 1e3, and my ultra-conservative estimate was 1e6. It seems pretty likely to me that the true figure will be 1e3-1e6, whereas 5e7 is certainly not a realistic estimate.
Hmm this is interesting. I think I broadly agree with you. I think a key consideration is that humans have a good-ish track record of living/surviving in deserts, and I would expect this to continue.