Executive summary: This speculative post argues that AGI could undermine both liberal democracy and the rule-based international order via a shared mechanism by eroding mutual economic dependence, weakening incentives for inclusive institutions domestically and for rules-based cooperation internationally.
Key points:
The author claims liberal democracy has historically been stabilized by the economic necessity of human labor, which gives workers leverage and incentivizes inclusive institutions.
AGI is argued to pose a qualitatively new risk by potentially driving the marginal value of human labor toward zero, removing those structural incentives over time.
Analogously, the author argues that the rule-based international order rests on comparative advantage and trade, which create incentives for cooperation and shared rules.
If AGI grants overwhelming productivity advantages to leading countries, it could erode other nations’ comparative advantages and reduce incentives to maintain a maritime, rules-based order.
The post suggests this shift could favor more transactional, bilateral relationships (“Pax Silica”) rather than stable multilateral alliances.
The author argues that AI middle powers, especially the EU, may retain relevance by controlling bottlenecks, shaping standards, providing public goods, and preserving democratic redundancy.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, andcontact us if you have feedback.
Executive summary: This speculative post argues that AGI could undermine both liberal democracy and the rule-based international order via a shared mechanism by eroding mutual economic dependence, weakening incentives for inclusive institutions domestically and for rules-based cooperation internationally.
Key points:
The author claims liberal democracy has historically been stabilized by the economic necessity of human labor, which gives workers leverage and incentivizes inclusive institutions.
AGI is argued to pose a qualitatively new risk by potentially driving the marginal value of human labor toward zero, removing those structural incentives over time.
Analogously, the author argues that the rule-based international order rests on comparative advantage and trade, which create incentives for cooperation and shared rules.
If AGI grants overwhelming productivity advantages to leading countries, it could erode other nations’ comparative advantages and reduce incentives to maintain a maritime, rules-based order.
The post suggests this shift could favor more transactional, bilateral relationships (“Pax Silica”) rather than stable multilateral alliances.
The author argues that AI middle powers, especially the EU, may retain relevance by controlling bottlenecks, shaping standards, providing public goods, and preserving democratic redundancy.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.